Thursday, June 11, 2020

SILLY POINT








Talking of banks, CASA plays the most important role in the business books. CASA is nothing but an acronym for “ Current Accounts and Savings Account”. Interestingly, the meaning of the word “CASA” in Urdu is the utensil in which a  "fakir" ( a Muslim ascetic) seeks alms.  Current account is used  for business transactions whereas savings account by individuals for  purposes other than business. Current account remains very volatile whereas savings accounts are not to that extent. “CASA“ is the bread and butter for any bank. They are low cost deposits to bank. More the CASA of the bank, less the lending rates for customers.  It is also the toughest business to generate for any bank although sounds like cracking a hollow paper ball. In doubt, please talk to any banker, frustration and plight will erupt in unimaginable ways, a  caveat .

Without delving much into the intricacies of low cost funds, let us observe an intriguing data which is self-explicit and  also open to individual interpretation based on political penchant.

The sum total of savings bank account deposits in the commercial banks (both Indian and Foreign ) in India was Rs.10,927 Crs in 1980-81. In other words, sum total of the money lying in all the savings bank accounts in India. The same increased to Rs.50501 Crs in 1990-91, Rs.222982 Crs in 2000-01 and Rs.137288 Crs in 2010-11 . In 2018-19 , as per the latest data available, the savings account deposit was  whooping Rs. 4031177 Crs .

Here comes an interesting comparison between the figures of 2015-16 and 2016-17 ( the year of demonetization). As compared to 2015-16, balance in savings bank accounts grew by Rs.8,57,039 Crs ( 33% ), one of the highest  since 1980. Where do these Rs 8.5 Lac crores came from ?

                                                                                                                                              ( Amount in Crs )

Source: RBI: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy 2018-19, Table 48


If that is not enough, let me corroborate the above hypothesis with another example i.e. increase in public provident fund receipts (PPF) for the year 2016-17.

                                                                                                                                                   (Amount in Crs)

Source: RBI: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy 2018-19, Table 1


The total receipts in 1980-81 was Rs.59 Crs, whereas in 2015-16 it rose to Rs.7791 Crs whereas the next year, the so-called year of currency bloodbath, the receipts ballooned to whooping Rs. 17,235 Crs, an increase of 121% . Is it not something bizarre that in savings bank deposit as well as  public provident fund (PPF) cash is accepted and the spurt is  highest in these two deposit avenues. Though these must not be construed as a yardstick to measure the pros or cons of demonetization.

                                                  

                                 






Thursday, June 4, 2020

OPEN LETTER TO CONGRESS



Every election has a lesson for all political parties. But for congress, it is futile, considering their unwillingness to learn from a series of their past mistakes. The performance of  India's oldest political party in the festival and extravagance of elections  is a matter of  deep sense of anger, agony and trauma. Every occasion, congress assured introspection but willy-nilly they did not get time to contemplate the real reasons. But they should thank Mr. Modi for imposing lock-down which would have given them sufficient time to ponder over their consistent failures.

 

The party has gone through many roller-coasters in elections since independence, certainly not new for them! However, fortune is taking long time to change unlike earlier. The ignominious defeat few months back, rather surrender before a nascent political party in Delhi where congress ruled for 15 years was no less than shameful. In a tug of war between BJP and Congress, AAP got the walk-over as congress chose to play under AAP cap .

The party has gone from zenith to nadir. And in this free-fall, no one seems to be willing to put a net below, as if hara-kiri is inevitable. The entire party is in shambles. The sycophants forming the cabal have over-dominating clout which prevents any free and fare advice to the family that matters.



For any democracy to function with proper checks and balances, a strong opposition should co-exist. It was the absence of an opposition as a deterrent which culminated into the “Shah-Bano Case” which haunts the congress till day. And it will continue to do so as an epitome of minority appeasement. There are so many occurrences which remain inexplicable for congress, in fact inexcusable too. Can anyone deny that the number of constitutional amendments that occurred on the whims, fancies and adventurism of congress leadership was not on account of their thumping majority in both the houses and negligible opposition.

Coming back to the results of various elections, the relevance of Gandhi family is fading in tilting the swing in their favor. Congress got duck in Delhi poll results which they were sure of, but certainly did not deserve.  Despite making so much of brouhaha about unemployment, Shaheen Bagh, inflation, drop in GDP and lot more if the party failed miserably, the problem is somewhere else. Probably, it lies in the presentation and deliberation of their viewpoint. Time and again, they failed to make the public connect, perhaps because the inner coterie consists of the people without any grassroots level. The party has an army of spokesperson but not a single with a mass appeal to flash upon. One should not be an expert in rocket science to judge the quality of  spokespersons’ in the party. With all the due respect to them, they are highly unprofessional and lack inter-personal and communication skill to canvass the public opinion to their fold, one of their primary role.



Congress is also blessed with an army of ‘Jaichands ( the so-called traitor who helped Mohammed Ghori against Prithviraj Chauhan) in the form of Manishanker Ayyars’, Shashi Tharoors’, and many more. They are the classic examples of Frankenstein monster who destroyed its own creator.  The party was close to striking distance in Gujarat elections but they played the perfect spoiler as if were acting on behalf of their political adversary. There was absolutely no control on such errant and rogue elements who unleashed a salvo of vicious insinuations and innuendos against the Prime Minister. The kind of unrelated and sordid language used obviously suggests a theory that there is a lobby in the party which does not want Mr. Rahul Gandhi or any other member of the Gandhi family to succeed. I personally feel it to be true without any prejudice to anybody.

What next then? Firstly, they need to think out of box. Not only that, the box itself  needs to be new and innovative. The strategy needs redefinition on some issues bereft of any apprehension of loosing votes of a particular community. The misconception that protesting anything and everything against Mr.Modi would appease muslims should be allayed. The sooner this perception abates, the better it is. The election steering should rest on optimistic plank instead of being  individual centric, see how beautifully and quickly Mr. Kejriwal had learnt which paid  too. The leaders who are not even known by the people outside their mohallas (streets)  were also abusing Mr. Modi personally and publically which did not augur well. The party should pass on the diktat not to attack Mr. Modi personally. Remember the TV debates! The kind of statements made by their spokesperson characterized the manifestation of utter frustration and race to score their numbers before the Gandhi family. They did not had any locus standi what-so-ever, but  were so  vocal in derogatory manner which was not liked by the masses. The more they spoke, the more damage inflicted.



Secondly, the entire party needs to be run on the corporate model resembling a company launching a new product afresh with an unmatched USP and best sales force. Believe it or not, no leader at the national level has either grip of the public nerve or the courage to advise the high command the situation they are in. Presently, their is nothing for  Rahul Gandhi to boast upon. Neither has he the charisma nor the much needed oratory skill to turn the tables. Still, candid feedback by the political advisors could make the difference.

Finally, there is something called “National Security” which is sacrosanct and unquestionable.  The strike on Balakot was made mockery of by most of the leaders who do not even understand the basic difference between internal and external security. Some of them even tried to suggest that it was against the Muslims'. Nothing could be as ridiculous and atrocious as this! Had they praised the government without any “ifs & buts” it would have earned more respect in the society. These are some of the reasons that all the social engineering and maneuvering getting failed in every election. Regional political parties are making gains but not the congress.

To conclude, it is nothing new which is written that congress pundits do not know or understand. But someone needs to be vocal in the party to fine-tune their strategy. Serious contemplation would have certainly taken place among them, but even now if they choose not to act then they are certainly going to spoil the political future of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra too. The real winner is not who sails with the wind but against it and emerges victorious.




Off the Farmer, Buy the Farmer and Far the Farmer

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